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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-14 07:44:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 140544 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland, Canada. A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward near or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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