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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-14 19:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141746 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Newfoundland, Canada. A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean less than 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Satellite imagery and surface wind data indicate that low has become better defined since yesterday, and shower and thunderstorm activity is showing increasing signs of organization. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical depression or a tropical storm storm is likely to form later tonight or early Tuesday while the low moves generally northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Wednesday morning, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some further organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become a little better organized since yesterday, upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for significant development of this system over the next day or two while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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