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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142333 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next day or so, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the system is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur later this week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is located about 750 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although this system continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for additional development during the next day or so while it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile when the wave approaches the Windward Islands and further development is not anticipated after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Brown
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