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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-04 19:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-10-04 16:45:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041441 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 A recent SSMIS microwave pass depicted that Leslie is continuing to become better organized and is trying to develop an inner core. Burst of deep convection have continued to develop mainly on the southern semi-circle as the system is still battling some deep-layer northeasterly wind shear. Given the improved convective pattern the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased this cycle with a data-T 3.5/55 kt, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates and the improving structure, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. Leslie is moving slowly westward at 280/5 kt, along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie, with a gradual turn west-northwestward then northwestward as it rounds the ridge. Leslie should continue north-westward with a slight increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous forecast track, which lies between the HCCA HFIP-corrected consensus and simple consensus aids. Northeasterly shear should begin to decrease later today as Hurricane Kirk continues to pull further away from the system. Strengthening is then forecast over the next 2-3 days with warm sea surface temperatures, upper-level divergence and low deep-layer shear. The intensity guidance, especially the peak has come down this cycle, and that is a combination of a few factors. In about 3 days, Leslie is forecast to move over the cold wake of Kirk, and encounter increasing dry air, mid-level shear, and the upper-level pattern also become a little less diffluent. This should cause the intensity of Leslie to plateau through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and is slightly lower than the previous forecast, but lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 10.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 10.3N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 11.4N 36.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 12.4N 37.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 13.8N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.3N 40.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 20.9N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2024-10-04 16:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:42:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:42:46 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics