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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-27 13:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 271133 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower activity. Although some slight development of the low is still possible today, it is expected to become absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with an elongated surface trough. A low pressure system is forecast to develop along this trough during the next day or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen
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