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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 07:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
692 ABPZ20 KNHC 010532 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development after that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Although the system does not yet appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2024-10-01 04:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 02:36:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 02:36:12 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-01 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010234 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.4N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics