je.st
news
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-01 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010234 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.4N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-01 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Kirk was located near 14.4, -36.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 6
2024-10-01 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 010233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 36.8W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 36.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and could become a major hurricane on Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics