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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 18
2024-07-03 04:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 72.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault * East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 72.7 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands Wednesday into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday into Friday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so. Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 18
2024-07-03 04:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030245 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 72.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 72.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.1N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 94.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W...ON COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 72.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-07-03 01:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2024 23:56:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2024 21:22:53 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics