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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-07-14 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140231 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 After the strengthening episode noted earlier today, the intensity trend has, at least temporarily, leveled off. The cloud pattern has not become significantly better organized, and Dvorak T-numbers have not increased, over the past several hours. Thus the current intensity estimate is held at 65 kt. The dynamical guidance calls for decreasing shear and the cyclone should continue to traverse a very warm ocean during the next 48 hours. So, although Dolores has not been strengthening in the short term, there remains a high likelihood for a significant increase in intensity over the next couple of days. The official wind speed forecast, like the previous one, calls for the system to become a major hurricane by Wednesday. This is similar to the latest LGEM model prediction. Dolores has slowed down some more, and is moving a little to the left of its earlier heading. Satellite fixes yield a motion estimate of 285/05 kt. The slow forward speed should continue as Dolores moves near the periphery of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge to its north. Little change has been made to the previous track forecast, and this official forecast is near the southern side of the dynamical track guidance suite. This is closest to the latest ECMWF prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.2N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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