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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-07-14 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140838 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 The satellite presentation overnight shows an improved cloud pattern with a well-developed symmetric Central Dense Overcast and cloud tops of -80 degrees C. Microwave overpasses also indicate developing spiral bands over the western portion of the cyclone. Objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates along with an earlier AMSU-B estimate support increasing the initial intensity to 70 kt. There is some northerly shear that appears to be impinging on the northwestern quadrant of the system but, guidance indicates that the shear will relax within the next 12-24 hours and the upper flow pattern over the southern half of the system is quite diffluent. The intensity forecast continues to reflect strengthening to a major hurricane in 36-48 hours as indicated by the SHIPS model and the GFS, which has been exhibiting some intensity skill this season. Afterward, gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over cooler water and into the southern extent of a southward propagating stable air mass. A series of microwave overpasses suggest that Dolores is moving slightly to the left of track or, westward at 280/5 kt within the weak peripheral flow of a ridge stretching over Texas and northern Mexico. Dynamical guidance indicates that this current motion is temporary, however, and a turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and should continue during the next couple of days. Beyond the 48 hour period, the global models show the ridge strengthening and building westward into Baja California. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause Dolores to gradually increase in forward speed while continuing on a west-northwest heading through 96 hours. At the end of the period, the forecast indicates a turn toward the northwest which is based on the GFEX, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models. The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast to correspond with the GFEX and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.0N 110.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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