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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-07-14 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141453 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Dolores has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Microwave imagery indicates that a mid-level eye has formed, and first-light visible images are showing a hint of eye development as well. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt based on a combination of subjective Dvorak Technique and AMSU intensity estimates. After its earlier westward turn, Dolores has resumed a west-northwestward motion of 290/6. The hurricane is currently being steered by a low- to mid-level level ridge over northern Mexico. The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the next 48 hours of so, which should cause the storm to move a bit faster toward the west-northwest. After 96 hours, the ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of California. This evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast. It lies near the center of the guidance envelope through 96 hours and a little left of the center of the envelope at 120 hours. Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36-48 hours in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear, with the biggest question being how strong will it get. The official intensity forecast during this time follows the SHIPS model, which is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours, so the current intensity forecast could be conservative. Regardless of the actual peak intensity, the cyclone should start a steady weakening trend after 48 hours as it encounters cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.0N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 109.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 111.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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