je.st
news
Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-07-15 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Convective tops have been warming very gradually around Dolores's eye since this morning. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/6.0, and given the infrared satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt. Dolores is moving over very warm 29-30 degrees Celsius water, but it will soon be traversing a tight SST gradient once it passes Socorro Island. Thus, the hurricane only has a small window to re-intensify before reaching colder water. Gradual weakening is now forecast during the next 24 hours, followed by faster weakening for the remainder of the forecast period. This forecast is very close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, especially early in the forecast period, and is lower than the previous forecasts since Dolores has not restrengthened. Dolores is located to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone, and the initial motion estimate is 290/5 kt. A ridge is expected to build westward from the anticyclone during the next couple of days, which should force Dolores to turn westward by 48 hours. After that time, there remains a notable spread in the track guidance, with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL showing a sharper turn toward the north and the GFS and HWRF keeping the cyclone farther south. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right and lies about midway between the previous forecast and the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 18.7N 110.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 19.7N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.1N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 21.9N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 28.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||