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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-07-16 16:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161437 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Cloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the past few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in the infrared Dvorak enhancement. This would suggest that weakening is not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches sub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure, only gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term. Much colder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment should induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores could become a tropical storm within 48 hours. The cyclone is expected to be a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36 hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The SHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems unrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the entire forecast period. Dolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds westward from northern Mexico. A turn back to the northwest and then north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected beyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the UKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east. The new NHC track forecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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