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Hurricane DORA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-06-26 22:41:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262041 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Since the previous advisory, Dora's cloud pattern has noticeably eroded, with cloud tops having warmed considerably and the earlier embedded eye feature having devolved into more of a banding eye structure. Satellite intensity estimates remain a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and NHC automated Dvorak intensity estimates have been steady at 80-82 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been increased slightly to 80 kt. The initial motion estimate remains a steady 295/11 kt. The global and regional models maintain the deep-layer ridge to the north of Dora throughout the forecast period, keeping the hurricane on a west-northwestward track for the next 48-72 hours, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter until dissipation occurs by 120 hours. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed around the previous advisory track now that the ECMWF has shifted farther to the north. As a result, only minor tweaks had to made to the forecast track, which lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. Dora has likely peaked in intensity, and is now starting to feel the negative effects of cooler water and more stable air just to its north. The hurricane should move over sub-26 C SSTs within the next 6-12 hours, which will induce gradual weakening. However, proximity to warm, unstable air just to the south of Dora's track, along with very favorable shear and outflow patterns, should act to temper the weakening rate somewhat. Dora is expected to become a tropical storm by 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model IVCN. Although the center of Dora is forecast to move farther away from mainland Mexico, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND 36H 28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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