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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-06-27 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271433 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Dora's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Although an eye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has been diminishing. The current intensity is set at 65 kt based on a blend of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is currently traversing sub-26 deg C SSTs, and the waters beneath Dora will continue to cool for the next couple of days. The system should weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, or less. The official intensity forecast is in close agreement with the model consensus ICON. Center fixes yield a continued west-northwestward motion of 300/11 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, over the next day or two. In 48-72 hours, a more westward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated. The official track forecast is a little north of the previous one, but south of the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.3N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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