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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-06-26 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260844 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Dora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on microwave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional satellite imagery. The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric than 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite estimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the improving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 70 kt. Dora has about 12-24 hours to further strengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more dry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to decay. Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the weakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing the cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids. Since the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally inhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than the model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the previous NHC forecast. Given the spread in the guidance, this is a low confidence forecast. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora should turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and becomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward since the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast follows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast for that time. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico through this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 105.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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