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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-09 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090236 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 Eugene has strengthened rapidly over the past 24 h and has reached hurricane strength during the past few hours. Recent microwave imagery indicates that a 25 n mi wide eye has formed, and this feature has also appeared sporadically in visible and infrared imagery. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates in the 65-75 kt range. The hurricane continues to have good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions as it remains in an environment of light vertical wind shear. Smoothing through the wobbles of the formative eye, the initial motion is 320/7. The hurricane is moving toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, and the track forecast guidance is in good agreement that a northwestward motion should continue through the forecast period, with some increase in forward speed during the first 24 h and some decrease in forward speed after 72 h. The guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Eugene should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment for about the next 24 h. Thus, additional strengthening is expected, with the main question being will the current rate of intensification continue. The forecast peak intensity is increased to 90 kt, which is above the intensity guidance but could be conservative if the intensification rate does not decrease. After 24 hours, the cyclone should move over colder water, with the sea surface temperature along the forecast track expected to be near 21C by 96 h. This should cause Eugene to steadily or rapidly weaken after 24 h, with the system expected to decay to a remnant low by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.4N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 15.4N 114.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.2N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 24.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 26.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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