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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-07-17 10:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170832 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 The eye of Fernanda is not as distinct as it was over the past day or so and appears cloud-filled at times in satellite images. The cloud tops surrounding the eye, however, remain very cold and the extent of the area of deep convection has grown since yesterday. In addition, the convective pattern remains fairly symmetric due to the light wind shear conditions. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 5.5/102 kt, and the ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a little higher. Based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is held at 105 kt. Fernanda is beginning to pull away from the warmest waters, and it is expected to track over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass and an increase in westerly wind shear should cause Fernanda to steadily weaken through the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is in good agreement with the consensus models. Fernanda continues to move to the west-northwest at 10 kt, steered by the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge and should cause Fernanda to move west-northwestward to northwestward at a slower pace during the next few days. After that time, the trough is expected to lift out allowing a ridge to rebuild to the north of the tropical cyclone. This should cause the system to turn toward the west by the end of the forecast period. The track models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a 0542 UTC ASCAT-B overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.4N 130.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 15.0N 132.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 16.0N 133.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.6N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 17.9N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 18.2N 145.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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