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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 23
2017-07-17 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171440 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Fernanda's eye has - once again - become clear in the shortwave infrared imagery with a slightly asymmetric ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding the 15 nm eye. A blend of the subjective Dvorak fixes from SAB/TAFB along with the objective Advanced Dvorak Technique gives 110 kt intensity, maintaining Fernanda as a Category 3 hurricane. In the short term, the SSTs beneath Fernanda will gradually cool, reaching 26C in about 36 hours. By days 4 and 5, the vertical shear should go up substantially due to Fernanda moving closer to a tropical upper-tropospheric trough. Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady weakening with the system becoming a remnant low around day 5. This forecast is closest to a blend of the LGEM and D-SHIPS statistical intensity schemes, as well as the HCCA corrected consensus technique. (The HWRF and COAMPS dynamical models appear to hold on to too strong a system at days 3 and beyond, based upon the environment that Fernanda is expected to encounter.) The hurricane is tracking toward the west-northwest at about 9 kt. Fernanda is expected to turn slightly toward the northwest during the next couple of days as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. By days 3 to 5, the system should turn back toward the west as it gets advected along in the low-level flow as a weakening tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus technique. The initial wind radii were maintained based on the earlier 0542Z and 0626Z ASCAT scatterometer overpasses. The forecast wind radii are based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 130.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 14.4N 132.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 15.3N 133.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 16.1N 134.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.8N 135.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 17.9N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 18.3N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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