je.st
news
Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-07-17 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Although the central convection has eroded slightly, Fernanda remains a well-organized tropical cyclone. The upper-level outflow is well defined over most of the circulation and the cloud pattern remains quite symmetric in appearance. The current intensity estimate remains 110 kt, which is a blend of the various subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Since Fernanda will be traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures, gradual weakening is likely during the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, vertical shear, associated with a large upper-level trough near the Hawaiian Islands, should result in more rapid weakening. The official intensity forecast is very close to the model consensus. The motion is bending slightly to the right and slowing. The mid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the northwest with a little more slowing in forward speed over the next 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, a more leftward heading is likely while the ridge rebuilds somewhat. The official forecast track is only slightly north of the previous one and is close to the model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 14.1N 131.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.8N 132.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.7N 133.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 136.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.9N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 18.3N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 18.8N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||