je.st
news
Hurricane GUILLERMO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-07-31 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310832 TCDEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 Guillermo's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, with well-defined convective banding and a fairly symmetric upper-level outflow pattern. A recent GMI microwave image showed a nearly closed low-level eyewall. The current intensity is set to 70 kt, based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. This makes Guillermo the fifth hurricane of the 2015 eastern North Pacific season. Given that the hurricane should be moving over warm waters, and in a moist mid-level environment with moderate shear, further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. Since the SHIPS-RI index still indicates a significant probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, the NHC forecast could be conservative. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast beyond 48-72 hours, since Guillermo could encounter stronger shear, depending mainly on how far north the cyclone moves late in the forecast period. Based on geostationary and microwave center fixes, the initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain the west-northwestward motion for the next several days. In 48-72 hours, Guillermo should encounter a weakness in the ridge which will likely cause some slowing of forward speed. However most of the guidance does not show much of a turn to the right in response to this weakness. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, with the former model to the north of the latter near the end of the period. This is similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 11.5N 130.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 12.7N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 13.3N 138.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 140.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 15.5N 144.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 17.5N 150.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||