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Hurricane GUILLERMO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-07-31 16:44:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 311444 TCDEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 The satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. The eye, however, is not completely closed on microwave imagery at this time. There are several cyclonically curved convective bands around the center, and the outflow is symmetric. Both objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have continued to increase, and the average of these numbers leads to an initial intensity of 80 kt. The current environment of low shear and warm ocean is quite favorable for Guillermo to intensity further, and the NHC forecast brings the winds up to 100 kt in about 24 hours. This forecast is a little bit higher than the SHIPS guidance, but follows the upward trend of the consensus. Beyond two days, the hurricane will encounter a less favorable shear environment as Guillermo approaches the prevailing upper-level westerlies. By the end of the forecast period, when Guillermo is expected to be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm. The hurricane is racing west-northwestward or 285 degrees at about 15 kt. The cyclone will likely continue on this track and speed for the next day or two while embedded within a layer of deep easterlies to the south of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to slow down as it approaches the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. By then, the presence of weaker steering currents makes the track forecast uncertain, and even more uncertain as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian islands in about five days. The NHC forecast is consistent with the solution provided by global models. The forecast is also near the consensus, but heavily weighted on the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 12.4N 132.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.0N 134.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 13.6N 137.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 14.3N 140.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.0N 142.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.3N 145.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 18.5N 152.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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