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Hurricane GUILLERMO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-07-31 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312033 TCDEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 The satellite presentation has improved a little more during past few hours. Although the eye is much better defined on microwave, it is not completely clear on visible or infrared imagery. The average of intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS suggests an initial intensity of 90 kt. The current environment of low shear and a warm ocean is quite favorable for Guillermo to intensify further in the short term, and the NHC forecast brings the winds up to 100 kt within 12 hours. Beyond two days, the hurricane will begin to move into a less favorable shear environment as Guillermo approaches prevailing upper-level westerlies. By the end of the forecast period, when Guillermo is expected to be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, most of the guidance indicate that Guillermo should have weakened to a tropical storm, and so does the NHC forecast. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 16 kt. Guillermo will likely continue at this fast pace for another 24 to 36 hours while embedded within a layer of deep easterlies to the south of the subtropical ridge. After that time, the hurricane is expected to slow down as it approaches the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and encounters weaker steering currents. The latest multi-model consensus GFEX has shifted considerably northward primarily due to the fact that the ECMWF changed its tune, and is now closer to the northernmost GFS. On this basis, the NHC forecast is adjusted northward a little bit, but not as much as the consensus, in case the ECMWF changes its tune again tonight. The NHC forecast is on southern edge of the guidance envelope, and perhaps will have to be adjusted farther northward when new model runs become available. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 12.7N 134.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.3N 137.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.0N 140.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.8N 142.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.5N 144.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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