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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-02 22:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 142 WTPZ45 KNHC 022041 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 Hector is a small but powerful hurricane this afternoon. Visible GOES-15 data show that it has a 10 n mi wide eye, surrounded by a increasingly symmetric area of deep convection. The latest satellite estimates at 18 UTC were between 90 kt and 95 kt, and since the presentation has continued to improve during the past few hours, the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. Hector has intensified an impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours- remarkable since the environment did not seem particularly favorable even 12 hours ago. What is perplexing about this forecast is that, despite all of the global models showing a more conducive environment during the next day or two, none of the regional hurricane models show intensification, and in fact they all show weakening. This would be a dramatic change, which seems pretty unlikely given the current state of things. It makes the most sense to show continuing strengthening, albeit at a reduced rate since the SSTs do moderate, in line with the SHIPS & LGEM models. The new forecast has a peak intensity at 72 hours when SSTs are the warmest with the lowest environmental shear. After that time, water temperatures and mid-level humidites should gradually decrease, which will probably promote some weakening. Obviously this is a low confidence forecast, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had to be raised in the short term later tonight. Hector continues on course, moving westward at 12 kt. The track forecast for the next 3 days is of high confidence, since the guidance is in good agreement and a large subtropical ridge is providing a well-defined steering current. Complications arise in the long range due to the potential interaction of Hector with a mid-level trough in the Central Pacific. The latest models show Hector moving into a weakness in the ridge associated with the trough, causing a more west-northwestward motion earlier in the forecast. This is a fairly subtle change but has led to most of the guidance trending to the north. The official forecast is shifted in that direction, but remains on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, close to the corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 125.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.9N 129.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 13.8N 134.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.6N 139.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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