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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 20
2024-11-08 09:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080845 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-08 07:00:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-11-08 06:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080559 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100 to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term through 36 h given the current higher intensity. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the consensus aids beyond 48 h. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics