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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 11
2024-10-05 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050236 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 34.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 34.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 33.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.6N 36.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.1N 38.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.9N 42.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 45.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 34.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-05 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 02:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 03:23:06 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 23
2024-10-05 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Microwave images indicate that Kirk is going through another eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall is still closed while a larger second eyewall wraps about 75 percent of the way around the eye and inner eyewall. The satellite intensity estimates have held mostly steady, and therefore, the initial intensity remains 115 kt. Hurricanes that go through these eyewall replacement cycles often get larger, and Kirk appears to be doing the same. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded a little on the system's east side based on a partial ASCAT-B pass. Kirk is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge, followed by a much faster northeastward and east-northeastward motion Sunday and early next week when Kirk moves in the strong mid-latitude flow. This track should take the core of the system to the north of the Azores on Monday and then across portions of western Europe by the middle of next week, Models are in good agreement, and no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. Fluctuations in intensity are likely in the short term, however, a pronounced increase in shear, intrusions of drier air, and progressively cooler waters should cause steady weakening beginning on Saturday. Kirk is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by day 3 when it is forecast to be over water temperatures in low 20's C and embedded in the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles through Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics