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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 23
2024-10-05 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Microwave images indicate that Kirk is going through another eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall is still closed while a larger second eyewall wraps about 75 percent of the way around the eye and inner eyewall. The satellite intensity estimates have held mostly steady, and therefore, the initial intensity remains 115 kt. Hurricanes that go through these eyewall replacement cycles often get larger, and Kirk appears to be doing the same. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded a little on the system's east side based on a partial ASCAT-B pass. Kirk is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge, followed by a much faster northeastward and east-northeastward motion Sunday and early next week when Kirk moves in the strong mid-latitude flow. This track should take the core of the system to the north of the Azores on Monday and then across portions of western Europe by the middle of next week, Models are in good agreement, and no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. Fluctuations in intensity are likely in the short term, however, a pronounced increase in shear, intrusions of drier air, and progressively cooler waters should cause steady weakening beginning on Saturday. Kirk is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by day 3 when it is forecast to be over water temperatures in low 20's C and embedded in the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles through Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-05 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Kirk was located near 25.0, -49.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 23
2024-10-05 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 49.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1610 MI...2585 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 49.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics