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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-06-27 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 COSME CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. PASSIVE WIND DATA FROM A SERIES OF SSM/IS OVERPASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE. BASED ON THIS AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT COSME HAS DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/15. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.9N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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