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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-05 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052037 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 The center of the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for most of the day. A few convective bursts located well to the west and northwest of the center have been observed periodically during the afternoon, but they are probably not contributing to the maintenance of the circulation, and do not meet the criteria of organized deep convection for a tropical cyclone. On that basis, the cyclone has been declared a remnant low and this is the last advisory. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. A pair of ASCAT passes around 1636 and 1722 UTC showed max winds of about 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been set to that value. The 1722 ASCAT-A pass also indicated that the circulation may already be opening into a trough. The remnants should continue to gradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating entirely within about 36 hours, if not sooner, as shown by the ECMWF, GFS, and SHIPS models. The post-tropical cyclone has continued to move a little right of the forecast track, perhaps due to the lack of deep convection that could have forced it farther west with the mid- to upper-level flow. Instead, it should continue to be steered by the weak low-level flow, generally north-northwestward or northwestward, until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 20.9N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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