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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-12 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122040 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene has succumbed to the effects of the cool, dry airmass in which it has become embedded. Organized deep convection dissipated earlier today and is unlikely to resume due to the system moving over progressively colder waters west of Baja California. Thus Eugene has become a post-tropical cyclone. An 1814Z ASCAT scatterometer pass measured maximum winds of about 30 kt. These winds will gradually subside and by day 3 or 4 Eugene's circulation is likely to open up into a trough. Eugene's remnant low is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. This motion should continue for the next couple of days, then slow with a turn toward the west-northwest by day 3. The track forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. Swells generated by Eugene affecting portions of the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California will be diminishing on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 24.1N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/0600Z 24.9N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 25.9N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 26.8N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 27.7N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 28.5N 128.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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