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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2024-11-14 00:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 132330 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 79.5W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue for another day or two, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
2024-11-13 21:57:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 20:57:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 21:22:56 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-11-13 21:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 132053 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend. Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea. However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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