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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122024)

2024-09-30 15:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Kirk was located near 13.5, -34.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-09-30 13:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 301153 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles north of the Azores, on Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Blake


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-09-30 13:53:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 301153 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Another area of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily offshore of southern Mexico. The system is forecast to move erratically through mid-week before drifting northward towards the southern Mexican coast, and some additional development of the system is possible while it remains offshore. Regardless of formation, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin


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