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Tropical Depression CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-06-15 16:33:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151433 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 Cristina continues to lack any deep convection, which is not surprising given the hostile envirionment of strong shear, cool waters and dry air. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina will likely be declared a remnant low later today, and global model fields show the low dissipating around 72 hours. The initial motion has turned back toward the west-northwest at 5 kt. Cristina is expected to gradually turn poleward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. The NHC track is a little to the right of the previous one, following the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.1N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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