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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-07-30 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 The depression's cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with a few small patches of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a Dvorak CI number from TAFB. North-northwesterly shear and dry air continue to affect the cyclone. Although the shear is expected to lessen, even drier air lies ahead of the system. The global models show the depression opening into a trough in a day or so, and the official forecast follows that guidance. The depression could become a remnant low before it dissipates if organized deep convection does not return soon. The initial motion estimate is 265/14. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression should continue to steer the cyclone just south of due west until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.6N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 16.4N 139.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 16.2N 142.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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