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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-07-28 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 The depression has become somewhat less organized since the last advisory. The center has become exposed to the northwest of an amorphous but persistent mass of deep convection. According to the UW-CIMSS shear analyses, the cyclone's appearance is a result of northwesterly shear of around 20 kt associated with an upper-level trough located to its northeast. Last-light visible satellite images also showed arc clouds on the fringes of the eastern half of the circulation, indicative of dry air entrainment. A satellite classification of T2.0 from both SAB at 0000 UTC is used to maintain the initial intensity at 30 kt. Any opportunity for the depression to strengthen is expected to be in the very short term. Water vapor imagery shows the cyclone moving into a region dominated by very dry mid- to upper-tropospheric air. The dry air, in combination with lower sea surface temperatures and greater atmospheric stability, should result in weakening after 24 to 36 hours. Global models show the system opening up into a trough in about 3 days in an increasingly unfavorable environment, around the time it crosses 140W. Like the previous forecast, this one shows little intensification, followed by weakening. However, dissipation is predicted much sooner (by 96 hours) based on the latest guidance. The initial motion estimate is 290/12. A low- to mid-level ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone on a west-northwestward course during the next few days. The model solutions diverge to some degree after 12 to 24 hours, due to their handling of the strength of this feature. The GFS and its ensemble mean have a weaker ridge and are farthest north while the ECWMF, with a stronger ridge, is on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track results in little overall change from the previous one and is nearly split between the ECMWF and GFS, near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 16.4N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 16.9N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 17.2N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 17.5N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 18.0N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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