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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-07-28 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 There has not been much change with the depression during the last several hours. Although an area of deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center, the cloud pattern lacks banding features. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB. The depression is currently experiencing about 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear, which is the reason why most of the thunderstorms are located to the south of the center. This continued shear, in combination with a stable air mass to the north of the cyclone should allow for only slight strengthening, if any, during the next day or two. After that time, weakening is expected when the system moves into an even more stable air mass and over slightly cooler water. None of the intensity models show significant strengthening, and the NHC forecast lies near the ICON consensus model. Most of the global models show the depression opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days, and the NHC forecast follows that theme by showing dissipation at 96 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the system should cause the cyclone to turn westward by tonight, and that general motion is forecast to continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 16.2N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 16.6N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 17.2N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 17.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 17.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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