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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-07-28 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The low-level center of the depression is exposed to the northwest of a small burst of deep convection, and arc clouds are emanating outward over the northern semicircle due to dry air in the circulation. The various Dvorak estimates were steady or decreased from this morning, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center is exposed due to continued 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly shear, which is expected to begin diminishing in about 12 hours. At the same time, however, the depression will be ingesting increasingly drier air and moving over much lower oceanic heat content values. Therefore, strengthening is no longer indicated in the official forecast, following the trends noted in the intensity and global models. The global models open the system up into a trough by day 3, and dissipation is therefore expected by that time. The depression has turned westward, or 280/12 kt, steered by the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. Due to its shallow nature, the depression should continue to move quickly westward until it dissipates. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the future track, and the official forecast continues to closely follow the consensus of those two models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 16.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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