je.st
news
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-07-29 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The depression's cloud pattern is becoming less organized. The low-level center continues to be exposed, and the overall extent of the cyclone's deep convection has diminished since yesterday. What few puffs of convection remain are shapeless and occurring in sporadic bursts. Satellite classifications are T1.5 and T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, suggesting that 30 kt is still a reasonable intensity estimate. A stiff northwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt affecting the depression is supposed to decrease considerably during the next couple of days. However, cooler waters and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic factors such as even less available atmospheric moisture suggest that weakening is likely. In fact, according to the global models, it would be optimistic for depression to survive another 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the unanimous model guidance calling for dissipation in 2 days or less. The initial motion estimate is 280/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of the depression should direct it westward during the next day or so. Once the weak system becomes even shallower, it is expected to trek westward or even west- southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow until dissipation. The official forecast is almost identical to the previous one as well as to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.0N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.1N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||