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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-07-29 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 291437 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 A recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the depression still has a well-defined circulation and center, but the deep convection has become less organized since yesterday. The intensity remains at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Vertical shear is out of the north-northwest at 10-15 kt, which is lower than yesterday, but the depression has been moving into an increasingly drier air mass. Therefore, the system is forecast to weaken and degenerate into a trough by 48 hours, following the evolution depicted in the global models. The initial motion is 270/11 kt, with the depression being steered westward by the low-level ridge to its north. A westward motion with some acceleration should occur during the next 36 hours before the depression dissipates, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly southward to follow the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 17.0N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.8N 138.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 16.6N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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