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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-20 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200836 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 It has been difficult to locate the center this evening, and the circulation of the depression appears to be limited to a shallow layer near the surface. The cloud pattern is unchanged and deep convection remains limited to a single band in the southwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates remain largely unchanged since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt. There is no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A combination of shear from an upper-level low to the north and interaction with Tropical Storm Greg to the east should prevent the depression from gaining any organization, causing the system to gradually weaken. Most of the dynamical guidance suggests that the cyclone will no longer have a well-defined center within the next 48 hours or so, and only a slight decrease in convective organization would cause the system to become a remnant low. A WindSat overpass around 0200 UTC suggested that the circulation was already becoming elongated, so dissipation could occur sooner than indicated. The initial motion remains 245/5 kt. The depression is still expected to be advected generally southwestward, around the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg. The track models have all shifted slightly westward, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little in that direction, but otherwise no significant changes have been made. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 13.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 13.2N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 12.5N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 12.0N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 11.6N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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