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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-07-29 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 Deep convection associated with the depression is becoming less organized and now consists of a nearly linear band through the eastern and southeastern part of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. North-northwesterly vertical shear of 10-15 kt is expected to diminish during the next 24 hours, but the circulation is moving into a drier air mass and over lower oceanic heat content values. Degeneration into a trough is expected by 36 hours based on the latest global model guidance. Although not explicitly indicated in the forecast, the depression could become a remnant low before dissipation occurs if it can't maintain organized deep convection. The depression appeared to accelerate suddenly earlier today but has leveled out at a motion of 265/14 kt. A low-level ridge to the north should keep the cyclone moving at this motion until dissipation, and the NHC track forecast follows the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.5N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 16.3N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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