je.st
news
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-08-04 22:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 The tropical depression remains strongly sheared from the northeast. Since the last advisory, small vortices have been seen rotating around a larger/primary center that has reformed or consolidated a little closer to the convection. Due to this relocation, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt. Since there are no in-situ or scatterometer observations available, the initial intensity has been raised accordingly, to 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, and there are still no models that show the cyclone becoming a tropical storm. Based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics, the 850-200 mb shear should increase to near 30 kt by tomorrow, accompanied by a sharp decrease in available moisture. Based primarily on the HWRF and ECMWF models, the forecast calls for Eleven to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate by 96 h. Given the hostile environment, it is possible that weakening could occur even quicker, as depicted by the GFS and experimental HMON. The track forecast has been shifted to the west for the first 12 hours due to the relocation of the center in that direction. Other than that, very little change has been made to the official track forecast. The global models remain in good agreement that the depression will continue generally west-northwestward, steered by the low- to mid-level steering flow associated with the ridge to the northeast. Since the low-level winds are weak, the depression should slow substantially before it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 18.0N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.7N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 19.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 20.6N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 20.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||