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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-08-05 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 The center of the depression moved over Socorro Island, Mexico between 0400 and 0500 UTC. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in that island reported a well defined wind shift associated with the circulation and 20 to 25 kt winds in gusts. A recent ASCAT pass shows a few vectors of 30 kt, and this will be the intensity in this advisory. The depression has been decapitated by strong upper-level easterly winds, and the low-level and mid-level centers are now separated by at least 230 n mi. There are only a few patches of deep convection left. Since the shear environment is forecast to persist or even increase, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a remnant low in about 12 hours or so. The low-level swirl associated with the center of the depression is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt around the periphery of a subtropical ridge. Since no changes in the steering pattern is forecast by global models, this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 19.2N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.0N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 20.6N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 21.2N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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