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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-10-05 16:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 051457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 95.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-05 16:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 14:56:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 14:56:31 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 25
2024-10-05 16:52:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051452 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 The inner core of Kirk has become a little less pronounced and ragged on satellite imagery, with the eye becoming more cloud filled. Shear is starting to increase over the system with some drier air intrusions becoming evident. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have come down with this cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt. Kirk continues to turn more northward (355/14 kt) within the flow between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east Atlantic Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that Kirk should keep turning to the northeast and east-northeast through early next week and increasing forward motion. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. The hurricane is getting ready to move into a hostile environment with increasing shear and drier air. The system will also be traversing cooler sea surface temperatures throughout the forecast period. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h, which is supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening beyond 60 h in agreement with the latest HCCA and simple consensus aids. Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 27.6N 50.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 30.1N 50.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 37.1N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 40.4N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 42.5N 33.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 43.5N 24.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 47.2N 5.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 54.9N 8.2E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics