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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-10-05 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 051458 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 14(33) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 25(51) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 25(51) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 12(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 5(38) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 11(55) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 11(42) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 14(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 17(60) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 15(46) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 6(37) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 2(24) X(24) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-05 16:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of Fourteen was located near 22.1, -95.1 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 1
2024-10-05 16:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051458 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics