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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-10-05 16:59:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051459 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass is expected over the system later this morning. The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and this track will bring the system across the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 miles. The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-10-05 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 051458 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 14(33) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 25(51) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 25(51) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 12(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 5(38) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 11(55) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 11(42) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 14(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 17(60) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 15(46) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 6(37) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 2(24) X(24) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-05 16:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of Fourteen was located near 22.1, -95.1 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics