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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-07-30 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 Satellite imagery and reports from NOAA buoy 51307 indicate that the large low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California has a closed circulation and sufficient convection to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nine-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which could be conservative given the current convective organization. The initial motion is 280/13. For the next three days or so, a strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope during this period. From 72-120 hours, the dynamical models suggest a mid- to upper-level trough should weaken the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The guidance becomes somewhat divergent during this time, with the GFS and ECMWF models showing a more northward motion, while the Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models show a continued west-northwestward motion. The track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions in calling for a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is expected to remain in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours or so. This should allow for steady strengthening, and the forecast follows the intensity consensus in calling for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a hurricane in about 48 hours. After 72 hours, a combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and westerly shear is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 8.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 8.9N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 9.9N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 10.9N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.0N 136.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 15.5N 145.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.5N 146.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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