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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-21 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211455 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression. The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of a developing cyclonically curved band. Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the official forecast which follows the consensus quite close. The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during this very busy July. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 9.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 10.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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