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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-22 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221454 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 The depression has failed to strengthen as previously indicated, and both the circulation and the convection are not currently as organized as it seemed to be 24 hours ago when advisories were initiated. Microwave data reveal that the center appears to be located on the south side of the main convection, and the low and mid-level centers are not aligned. Based on Dvorak numbers, the maximum winds are estimated at 30 kt. Having said that, the depression is expected to move through a very favorable moist environment of low shear during the next several days, and the ocean is plenty warm. With these conditions present, the NHC forecast insists on strengthening and still anticipates that the depression will become a hurricane in about 48 hours. Guidance is a little bit less aggressive than earlier but still forecasts intensification. With the low-level center difficult to locate, the initial motion has become uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 10 kt. A persistent subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific will keep steering the cyclone on the same general track for the next five days. This is the solution provided by track guidance which, in fact, is tightly clustered. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope, and is not very different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 10.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 10.5N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 11.6N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 12.5N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 13.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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