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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-21 22:47:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212046 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Although the convection is not very deep at this time, the organization of the cloud pattern has continued to improve with various curved bands wrapping around the center. An average of the objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an ideal moist environment with low shear and it is moving over warm SSTs. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and the depression could reach hurricane status in about 48 hours or sooner. The intensity forecast is a little above guidance given such a prevailing favorable environment. The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 12 kt. The depression is moving around the periphery of a strong subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is likely steer the cyclone between the west and west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days toward a weakness of the ridge. After that time, the ridge is forecast to amplify and will likely force the cyclone to move with a more westerly component. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and continues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope. This forecast keeps the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.0N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 9.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 10.0N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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